Vincent van Gogh

Vincent van Gogh is one of the most influential figures in the history of art. He is known for his bold use of color, expressive brushwork, and emotionally charged compositions.

Though he struggled with mental illness and found little commercial success during his lifetime, his work would later revolutionize modern art, inspiring movements such as Expressionism and Fauvism.

Masterpieces like Starry Night, Sunflowers, and The Bedroom showcase his ability to infuse ordinary scenes with deep emotion and energy. His unique artistic vision, characterized by thick impasto and swirling, dynamic forms, has made his paintings some of the most recognizable and beloved in the world.

Beyond his artistic achievements, Van Gogh’s personal story—marked by perseverance, passion, and an unwavering dedication to his craft—continues to resonate with audiences, making him a timeless symbol of artistic genius and resilience.

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“What happens today has happened before and will happen again.” Livermore

“The farther backward you look, the farther forward you will see.” Winston Churchill

“Rather than love, money, fame, give me truth.” Henry David Thoreau

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Tracking Account Valuation January 4, 2022 – $1,212,085

Tracking Account Valuation January 2, 2025- $1,844,396  

Tracking Account Valuation September 3, 2025- $2,422,513

Since 2021 +100%/ YTD to 5-27 +31.7%

Primary-Trend: ~ Downtrend

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Positions: 20% SQQQ, 10% DXD, 10% SPXU, 5% VXX, 55% Cash

Hard stop:  SQQQ 15.39, DXD 22.47,  SPXU 13.89, VXX 33.92

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4:00 PM: Stoch: FALLING-BRSH Itrdy

Daily        LOLR      STS

5/2-DT    7/0-UT    4/3-DT

Breadth: 753/733

ADR: 1.4/SPY: +3.27

NYMO: +10 Rising Intraday

NAMO: +18 Rising Intraday

The Summation Index is Rising

*NYSE Advance-Decline Ratio

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On the Edge: Data, Markets, and Indicators Signal Recession

Economic cycles rarely announce their turning points with clarity in real time. Yet, when multiple signals align—from labor market data to financial markets to broader economic indicators—the weight of evidence can no longer be ignored. The current constellation of data strongly suggests that the U.S. economy is either on the verge of a recession or has already entered one.

This week’s review examines three key perspectives: the labor market and consumer behavior, the message from financial markets, and broader indicators of economic health.

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Part 1 – The Economic Data: A Weakening Foundation

The labor market, long the cornerstone of economic resilience, is showing unmistakable signs of strain.

Slowing job growth: In August 2025, the economy added only 22,000 jobs, a dramatic shortfall from expectations and the weakest showing in years. This confirms a clear downtrend in hiring momentum that has unfolded over the summer.

Rising unemployment: The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, marking a steady and concerning reversal from post-pandemic lows.

First negative job month since 2020: Revised data for June revealed a net loss of 13,000 jobs, the first monthly contraction in employment since the depths of the 2020 pandemic.

Month by month job growth in thousands for the last ten years:

The “Sahm Rule”, named after economist Claudia Sahm, is a crucial indicator for forecasting U.S. recessions. Sahm, renowned for her accurate predictions of every recession since 1960, devised this rule to pinpoint economic downturns precisely. The Sahm Rule states that if the unemployment rate, averaged over three months, exceeds its lowest point from the previous year by half a percentage point, the economy is likely to have entered a recession.

The steady rise in unemployment is nearing the threshold of the Sahm Rule, a historically flawless recession indicator. If triggered, it would formally mark the onset of recessionary conditions.

Beyond jobs, consumer confidence and spending are deteriorating, raising deeper concerns about demand. Both the University of Michigan and Conference Board surveys show sharp declines in sentiment.

At the same time, households have begun pulling back on discretionary spending, weighed down by high prices and uncertainty.

The strain is evident in credit markets, where record-high credit card debt and rising delinquency rates in auto loans reveal households are increasingly stretched. Since consumer spending makes up nearly two-thirds of U.S. GDP, this retreat represents a significant red flag for growth.

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Part 2 – The Market Data: Financial Stress Rising

Markets, often forward-looking, are also flashing warning signals consistent with a recessionary turn.

Yield curve inversion: The U.S. yield curve has remained inverted for an extended period, with short-term interest rates exceeding long-term ones. Historically, such inversions are among the most reliable precursors of recessions.

Tighter credit conditions: Financial institutions report growing stress across credit markets. UBS noted that recession probabilities implied by credit metrics have doubled since January 2025, reflecting weakening financial conditions.

(See collapsing Treasury rates leading into recessions in 2000, 2008, 2020, and 2025 at the bottom of this page.)

Market volatility and pullbacks: Equity markets experienced a sharp correction in early 2025, exposing the fragility of investor confidence. Even as indexes attempted recoveries, underlying breadth has remained weak, reinforcing the sense that this is not a healthy or sustainable advance.

McClellan Oscillator 10-day average remained negative for a 100-year record full month while SPX carved out record highs:

Copper: Gold Ratio at 50-year low as strong indication of emerging recession:

Above indicator confirmed by Lumber: Gold Ratio at record low:

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Part 3 – Broader Economic Weakness: Beyond Labor and Markets

The broader picture of the economy underscores the same story of deceleration.

Declining Leading Economic Index (LEI): The Conference Board’s LEI has trended downward, historically a strong signal of turning points in the business cycle. Analysts describe the current malaise as “mile wide, inch deep”—not yet catastrophic, but spread broadly across sectors.

Trade and policy risks: Uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy is further weighing on business sentiment. For globally integrated supply chains, this creates additional friction at a moment when margins are already under pressure.

Together, these forces point to an economy losing altitude.

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Conclusion – Convergence of Signals

Individually, slowing job growth, consumer stress, or an inverted yield curve might be dismissed as temporary. Collectively, however, they tell a consistent story: the U.S. economy is shifting from late-cycle slowdown into contraction.

The labor market has weakened, financial markets are pricing in higher risk, and the LEI confirms a broad loss of momentum. Let us make no mistake about this: taken together, these elements form a pattern we have seen at every recessionary turning point of the last century.

Whether formally recognized today or in the coming weeks, the reality is that recession is no longer a distant risk—it is already taking shape.