“Rather than love, than money, than fame, give me the truth.” Henry David Thoreau
“Veritas Nunquam Perit”- “The Truth Never Perishes” Seneca (the younger)
“There is only one side to the market, and that’s the right side.” Jesse L. Livermore
“There is nothing new in Wall Street. What happens today has happened before and will happen again.” Livermore
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Primary Trend: BEAR MARKET
Intermediate-Term: ~ Seven Sentinels Downtrend
LOLR Trend: ~ Downtrend
Trading Position: 22% VXX, Cash 78%
Stops: VXX 23.07
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ALL TIMES EASTERN
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-22%
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Monday 4:00:
SS LOLR STS
Down Down Down
1/6 3/4 1/6
Breadth: -1206/-826
McO Intra-Day: -31.38
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Is the current TREND bullish or bearish? Should the serious trader be long or short?
We’ll examine the weight of the evidence today – and we’ll express the probability of decline directly ahead in poker terms.
Ace #1: The images below universally display sharply declining breadth-
–at the new SPX ATH. It matters not whether we are examining the NYSE Advance-Decline Line, the McClellan Oscillator below zero, or the 13 and 34-day moving averages of the McClellan Oscillator also both below zero. They are each below zero.
The configurations of the 1-day McO below the 13 and the 13-day below the 34-day MA is as bearish as it can get.”
Ace #2: Our key TREND measures are in downtrends:
-STS is 1/6 in a downtrend, LOLR is 3/4 in a downtrend, and the Daily Sentinels, also in a downtrend, are just one small tick from 0/7:
NYMO, NYSI, NAMO, NASI are in the two images above. Below are the fifth, sixth, and seventh Daily Sentinel:
Again, that’s about as bearish as market internals can become.
Prices WILL follow.
Ace #3: The sentiment, too, is producing precisely the same message:
-the CBOE total put/call ratio is at a 15-year record, and the equity-only put/call Ratio is building the most extreme SELL Signal of this Century:
Universal SELL Signals from the Breadth, Put/Call Ratios, Sentinels. Three aces.
But now- markets drew the fourth ace. This time it’s a SELL Signal coming from VIX.
VIX, at this all-time high, is now trending up as measured by the MACD and CCI.
All four aces appearing at a new all-time in SPX:
In poker terms, the market could still draw the perfect card ahead to complete an inside straight-flush draw to beat these four aces
— But we would not want to bet on it.
The week ahead is likely to be very interesting.
We remain patient — and ready.
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