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“There is nothing new under the sun.” Ecclesiastes 1:9
“What happens today has happened before and will happen again.” Livermore
“Rather than love, money, or fame, give me the truth.” Henry David Thoreau
“Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.” Robert Farrell
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Tracking Account Valuation January 4, 2022 – $1,206,085 (First day of 2022-2024 Primary Bear Market)
Tracking Account Valuation January 16, 2024- $2,783,343
Intermediate-Term: ~ Downtrend
LOLR Trend: ~ Downtrend
Open Positions: 20% SPXU@8.26, 30% TZA@21.4, 20% SQQQ @11.97 30% Cash
Hard Stops: SPXU 7.77, TZA 18.39, 10.93. We will raise these stops at the end of the week
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Can you identify the 1973 and the 2024 TOPS without looking at the dates on the image?
Examine the pattern of each of these carefully:
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SPX daily chart (top frame)
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McClellan Oscillator, including moving averages (middle frame) and
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McClellan Summation Index (bottom frame).
Each chart above identifies a significant Long-Term market top. We’ll discuss the elements of each that make that identification below.
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Some of us watched this process in 1972, 1973, and 1974. Most of what we understand about how a select group of stocks creates a final SPX top and subsequent Bear Market comes from an intense study of what historical records from that period and earlier reveal.
The critical message of this article is that this particular Déjà vu has just happened, as Yogi Bera would say, “all over again.”
The above explains the fundamental logic that produced the 1973 TOP and the 1973-1974 Bear Market. Let’s now discuss the warning signs that told us then and tell us now that “the top is in:”


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