The Brando
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Veritas Nunquam Perit- “The Truth Never Perishes” Seneca (the younger)
There is nothing new in Wall Street. Whatever happens today, has happened before and will happen again. Jesse L. Livermore
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There is only one side to the market, and that’s the right side. Jesse L. Livermore
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-93%
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Primary Trend: DOWN
Intermediate-Term: ~ Seven Sentinels Uptrend, 9-05-19, SPX 2970
LOLR Trend: ~ Downtrend – 10 AM, 9-24-19 – SPX 2999
2018 Tracking +58% versus SPX -6% Outperformed SPX By +64%
Trades: Sold UVXY, BOT TZA, TVIX
Trading Position: 20% SQQQ, 21% TZA, 35% SPXU, 16% TVIX, 7% cash
Stops: SQQQ 30.19, TZA 43.39, SPXU 25.47, TVIX 12.47
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ALL TIMES EASTERN
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Tuesday 4:00 CLOSE
Daily LOLR STS
Down Down Down
0/7 2/5 0/7
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We published this atricle entitled Moment of Truth on July 29, 2019. In that article (linked in prior sentence), we wrote:
“Markets are set up now for a severe decline immediately ahead, perhaps more violent than what developed in October-December 2018. But we still have to wait for two things to play out in days ahead:
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The Federal Open Market Committee statement at 2 PM Wednesday, July 31 which we expect will include a cut in rates. This statement will be followed by a Press Conference at 2:30.
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A SELL Signal from LOLR.
The occurrence of the first element of the two above is just a matter of time. The second of the two will occur when market conditions produce it- and we will be monitoring these LOLR Sentinels closely as we wait.”
As it turns out, that article came on the first day following the precise peak of the market- before or since- as can be seen in several charts below.
“Though in the sands of time, the frustration of trading through that top with all its reversals and vicissitudes may appear as insignificant, those gyrations have caused us all severe aggravation in real-time over parts of that period. False starts and quick trend reversals during this period have, at times, frustrated even the very best of analysis regarding the overall unfolding Bear Market.
But that frustrating transition period may have come to an end in recent weeks. The unmistakable and precise alignment of all of the following Sentinels time frames appears to be now confirming this.”
If July 29 was the Moment of Truth, then perhaps today will be seen as “Moment of Truth II” in the whole unwinding of the nearly two-year triple top leading into a sustained bear market.
Let’s look at today first in the close-up view of the break of the head & shoulders top pattern of the last month (directly below). Below that image, we see today’s event in context as we view the daily SPX for the previous six, months, the same two dates marked on the weekly charts on a two-year weekly, then these two dates marked on the monthlies for the last 25 years.
Two-Hour H&S Top Pattern:
Six Month Daily Charts:
Three year weekly charts:
25-year Monthly Charts showing Triple Top:
The above displays lay out exactly how we view the unfolding saga of the 2018-2019 Top and the beginning on the sustained 2018-2021 (end-date is approximate) Bear Market. But the future pathway for markets is never cast in cement. If market conditions add some twists and turns that are unforeseen now, we fully expect that our Sentinels (ALL of which are in downtrend currently) will alert us to the internal changes that proceed any significant change in that external pathway.
In the short-term, as always, we are braced for lots more “inconvenient” days like Monday of this week, along the way. Buy we will stay focused on the TREND.
We will update our Seven Sentinels, LOLR, and STS tomorrow every time a significant or actionable change occurs in real-time. We’ll publish signals as they materialize and tracking trades, including time and price, as they arise- and advise members on Twitter as these occur.
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