March 13, 2022-

Jesse Livermore often said: “There isn’t a bull side or a bear side to the market. There is only the right side.”

His rule for successful trading demanded that he align with the market trend. His second required that he understand that “the big money is made on the BIG move.”

As Livermore recognized the market’s massive trend-change in late 1929 and applied those two rules in 1929-1932, he made over $100 Million (the 2022 equivalent of $1.2 Billion) by “Being Right and Sitting Tight.”

The trend change that changed the world in the 1930s has just begun in the 2020s.

The opportunity offered Livermore in 1929 is in the hands NOW of any serious trader who has the insight and the courage to embrace it!!

In today’s article, we will review again the Long-Term Trend or “Primary Cycle” of the US equities market, followed by a look at the Intermediate-Term Trend (typically the 2-9 month interim trends of which the Primary Cycle is composed).

Following that, we will review the Short-Term Trend looking out over this week.

================================

As US equities markets were putting in a final top in the capitalization-weighted indices such as the S&P 500, we laid out a detailed article that chronicled the: “Tipping Point for the Ages.“

We published that article on December 12, 2021, and have linked it to each page of this website. We wrote:

“We noted decades ago what a market TOP “looks like.” More importantly, we have studied for decades how market internals relate to SPX or the DJIA at the tipping point. This article results from those studies and understandings.

Following is a summary of how these market internals have behaved at Primary Peaks over the last century. The following list recaps 92 years of data at market cycle peaks.

In that December 10, 2021, article we wrote:

“Let’s see if Friday’s data “looks like” a top based on 92 years of market history.

As was the case with every market average, every “internal” ALSO FAILED to CONFIRM the peak in the SPX Average. All nine.

Let’s look at all nine crucial internals on December 10, 2021, and see where they rank in 2021 compared to how they closed at Primary Peaks over the past 92 years.

Let’s see if they look like they did at those 20 past tops:

NYSE Cumulative Advances-Declines were down 6000 units since November 18 SPX close of 4704, Check.
Ten-year US TSY Yields down 30 basis points from October peak. Check.
NYSE McClellan Summation Index -197.14 was 2nd lowest in 92 years at an ATH SPX. Check.
NASDAQ McClellan Summation Index -541.5 was the RECORD low at any SPX ATH in 92 years. Check.
NYSE McClellan Oscillator -10.29 2nd lowest only to 1948 record after setting the RECORD low of -41.85 at the then ATH SPX of 4704 on November 18. Check.
NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator at -19.65 sets the RECORD low for all 13 past peaks we have data. Check.
Ten-day moving average of net new Yearly Highs (Highs minus Lows) at -40.54 sets the RECORD for any past peaks in 92 years. Check.
Percentage of NYSE issue above their 50-day moving average- at 42.12, this is the RECORD low for the six past peaks for which we have data. Check.
Percentage of NYSE issue above their 200-day moving average- at 55.06 this the 4th lowest in the 12 years for which we have data. Check.

As SPX closed at an ATH Friday, December 10, 2021:

Every single market average failed to confirm SPX on Friday
Every single market internal was unable to confirm on Friday
NASDAQ Summation set a Record low for an ATH Friday
NYSE Summation set the Second lowest for an ATH in 92 years Friday
NYSE McClellan Oscillator produced a Record Low at an ATH on November 18 and the Second lowest in 92 years Friday
NASDAQ Summation set a Record Low for an ATH Friday
The ten-day average on net yearly lows set Record for an ATH Friday
Percentage of NYSE issues above their 50-day MA set a Record Low for an ATH on Friday
Percentage of NYSE issues above their 200-day MA was among four lowest at an ATH on Friday

The above is what every top has “looked like”- even those that predated me by many decades.

We are referring to the area on the calendar to which we will be able to point back and say, ‘that was the top.’” (See the image below)

On the following image, we’ve placed a red arrow at each “tipping point” in the last 25 years.

This “tipping point for the ages” was the REAL DEAL.

Below is the Longer 50-year view:

And the following is the 100-Year View for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Please note that one can view the TREND change to DOWN in the zoomed-in portion on the right side of the image:

This trend change is the REAL DEAL! Livermore, again, said:

“There isn’t a bull side or a bear side to the market. There is only the right side.”

For new readers, we ask you to consider just two things: IF your trading account is not UP at least 25% for 2022 so far, we ask you to:

Consider whether you are trying to trade on what Livermore called the “wrong side” of the NEW Primary Trend
Consider the opportunity ahead of you by simply recognizing and embracing the change to the right side.

A word to the wise is sufficient.

====================================

Limited Time Trial Just $7

====================================

If we were to “zoom in” on the above 100-year, 50-year, or 25-year charts showing the changes in the Primary Trend, we would see that Intermediate-Term trends articulate every Primary Bear Market. These IT trends typically run from about two to nine months. In a Bear Market, the IT downtrends tend to run longer than the IT uptrends.

The IT trends are easy to see in this image of the 2000-2002 Primary Bear Market- so we will use it to visualize IT trends in general.

Our discussion of Intermediate-Term Trends within Primary Bear Markets will be brief today.

We will note today that the 2000-2002 Primary Bear Market consisted of

an IT decline from September 2000 to March 2001
An IT advance from Mar 2001 to May 2001
An IT decline from May 2001 to September 2001
An IT advance from September 2001 to January 2002
An IT decline from January 2002 to October 2002

Currently, we are still in the early stages of this first IT decline within this new Primary Bear Market:

We’ll detail the IT trend in future articles, particularly when the markets are approaching an Intermediate-Term trend change from down to up. Currently, SPX and other major averages are NOT close to that point. We are likely many months away from that turn.

===============================

In this final section today, we will recap and update through right now, the Short-Term Analysis we’ve been detailing in our intraday and nightly reports:

This Primary Bear Market began on January 4, 2022. The Bear Market will consist of Intermediate-Term trends, declines, and advances.

The first of those IT trends also began on January 4, 2022:

{This section updated 4-6-22}

The above chart lays out the short-term waves within that Primary Bear Market and the unfolding first Intermediate-Term decline within that Bear Market.

To recap that short-term “mapping,” markets finished Wave One of the IT decline on February 24.

Wave Three (down) commenced on Tuesday, March 29.

That new ST decline then is unfolding in a probable 1-2-3-4-5 ST wave structure.

Markets are currently in a wave three decline that is highly likely, we believe, to break BELOW the February 24 low for SPX in April.

Once markets break below that February 24 low, we expect panic to take charge of markets, accelerating the decline.

As we do every hour of every day, we monitor our proprietary timing signals provided by our continuously updated intraday McClellan Oscillator readings and alert readers to any new signals.

That intraday NYMO/NAMO data is NOT provided from any other available services or data feeds. We calculate it continuously during the day and relay that data to readers.

We will comment on all signals as provided during the day and update at least every hour the Intraday detailed data on the web page.

In addition to the intraday constant updates and the comments during the live sessions, we Tweet out essential changes as they occur for faster updating for followers.

Currently, our Tracking Account is fully short via leveraged ETFs. Trend mapping suggests that markets will likely move from “orderly selling” to accelerated “panic selling” in the days directly ahead.

We will review overnight futures trading at 9:15 AM Monday.

===================================

Limited Time Trial Just $7

March 13, 2022-

Jesse Livermore often said: “There isn’t a bull side or a bear side to the market. There is only the right side.”

His rule for successful trading demanded that he align with the market trend. His second required that he understand that “the big money is made on the BIG move.”

As Livermore recognized the market’s massive trend-change in late 1929 and applied those two rules in 1929-1932, he made over $100 Million (the 2022 equivalent of $1.2 Billion) by “Being Right and Sitting Tight.”

The trend change that changed the world in the 1930s has just begun in the 2020s.

The opportunity offered Livermore in 1929 is in the hands NOW of any serious trader who has the insight and the courage to embrace it!!

In today’s article, we will review again the Long-Term Trend or “Primary Cycle” of the US equities market, followed by a look at the Intermediate-Term Trend (typically the 2-9 month interim trends of which the Primary Cycle is composed).

Following that, we will review the Short-Term Trend looking out over this week.

================================

As US equities markets were putting in a final top in the capitalization-weighted indices such as the S&P 500, we laid out a detailed article that chronicled the: “Tipping Point for the Ages.“

We published that article on December 12, 2021, and have linked it to each page of this website. We wrote:

“We noted decades ago what a market TOP “looks like.” More importantly, we have studied for decades how market internals relate to SPX or the DJIA at the tipping point. This article results from those studies and understandings.

Following is a summary of how these market internals have behaved at Primary Peaks over the last century. The following list recaps 92 years of data at market cycle peaks.

In that December 10, 2021, article we wrote:

“Let’s see if Friday’s data “looks like” a top based on 92 years of market history.

As was the case with every market average, every “internal” ALSO FAILED to CONFIRM the peak in the SPX Average. All nine.

Let’s look at all nine crucial internals on December 10, 2021, and see where they rank in 2021 compared to how they closed at Primary Peaks over the past 92 years.

Let’s see if they look like they did at those 20 past tops:

NYSE Cumulative Advances-Declines were down 6000 units since November 18 SPX close of 4704, Check.

Ten-year US TSY Yields down 30 basis points from October peak. Check.

NYSE McClellan Summation Index -197.14 was 2nd lowest in 92 years at an ATH SPX. Check.

NASDAQ McClellan Summation Index -541.5 was the RECORD low at any SPX ATH in 92 years. Check.

NYSE McClellan Oscillator -10.29 2nd lowest only to 1948 record after setting the RECORD low of -41.85 at the then ATH SPX of 4704 on November 18. Check.

NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator at -19.65 sets the RECORD low for all 13 past peaks we have data. Check.

Ten-day moving average of net new Yearly Highs (Highs minus Lows) at -40.54 sets the RECORD for any past peaks in 92 years. Check.

Percentage of NYSE issue above their 50-day moving average- at 42.12, this is the RECORD low for the six past peaks for which we have data. Check.

Percentage of NYSE issue above their 200-day moving average- at 55.06 this the 4th lowest in the 12 years for which we have data. Check.

As SPX closed at an ATH Friday, December 10, 2021:

Every single market average failed to confirm SPX on Friday

Every single market internal was unable to confirm on Friday

NASDAQ Summation set a Record low for an ATH Friday

NYSE Summation set the Second lowest for an ATH in 92 years Friday

NYSE McClellan Oscillator produced a Record Low at an ATH on November 18 and the Second lowest in 92 years Friday

NASDAQ Summation set a Record Low for an ATH Friday

The ten-day average on net yearly lows set Record for an ATH Friday

Percentage of NYSE issues above their 50-day MA set a Record Low for an ATH on Friday

Percentage of NYSE issues above their 200-day MA was among four lowest at an ATH on Friday

The above is what every top has “looked like”- even those that predated me by many decades.

We are referring to the area on the calendar to which we will be able to point back and say, ‘that was the top.’” (See the image below)

On the following image, we’ve placed a red arrow at each “tipping point” in the last 25 years.

This “tipping point for the ages” was the REAL DEAL.

Below is the Longer 50-year view:

And the following is the 100-Year View for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Please note that one can view the TREND change to DOWN in the zoomed-in portion on the right side of the image:

This trend change is the REAL DEAL! Livermore, again, said:

“There isn’t a bull side or a bear side to the market. There is only the right side.”

For new readers, we ask you to consider just two things: *IF* your trading account is not UP at least 25% for 2022 so far, we ask you to:

Consider whether you are trying to trade on what Livermore called the “wrong side” of the NEW Primary Trend

Consider the opportunity ahead of you by simply recognizing and embracing the change to the right side.

A word to the wise is sufficient.

====================================

Limited Time Trial Just $7

====================================

The IT trends are easy to see in this image of the 2000-2002 Primary Bear Market- so we will use it to visualize IT trends in general.

Our discussion of Intermediate-Term Trends within Primary Bear Markets will be brief today.

We will note today that the 2000-2002 Primary Bear Market consisted of

an IT decline from September 2000 to March 2001

An IT advance from Mar 2001 to May 2001

An IT decline from May 2001 to September 2001

An IT advance from September 2001 to January 2002

An IT decline from January 2002 to October 2002

Currently, we are still in the early stages of this first IT decline within this new Primary Bear Market:

We’ll detail the IT trend in future articles, particularly when the markets are approaching an Intermediate-Term trend change from down to up. Currently, SPX and other major averages are NOT close to that point. We are likely many months away from that turn.

===============================

In this final section today, we will recap and update through right now, the Short-Term Analysis we’ve been detailing in our intraday and nightly reports:

This Primary Bear Market began on January 4, 2022. The Bear Market will consist of Intermediate-Term trends, declines, and advances.

The first of those IT trends also began on January 4, 2022:

{This section updated 4-6-22}

The above chart lays out the short-term waves within that Primary Bear Market and the unfolding first Intermediate-Term decline within that Bear Market.

To recap that short-term “mapping,” markets finished Wave One of the IT decline on February 24.

Wave Three (down) commenced on Tuesday, March 29.

That new ST decline then is unfolding in a probable 1-2-3-4-5 ST wave structure.

Markets are currently in a wave three decline that is highly likely, we believe, to break BELOW the February 24 low for SPX in April.

Once markets break below that February 24 low, we expect panic to take charge of markets, accelerating the decline.

As we do every hour of every day, we monitor our proprietary timing signals provided by our continuously updated intraday McClellan Oscillator readings and alert readers to any new signals.

That intraday NYMO/NAMO data is NOT provided from any other available services or data feeds. We calculate it continuously during the day and relay that data to readers.

We will comment on all signals as provided during the day and update at least every hour the Intraday detailed data on the web page.

In addition to the intraday constant updates and the comments during the live sessions, we Tweet out essential changes as they occur for faster updating for followers.

Currently, our Tracking Account is fully short via leveraged ETFs. Trend mapping suggests that markets will likely move from “orderly selling” to accelerated “panic selling” in the days directly ahead.

We will review overnight futures trading at 9:15 AM Monday.

For new readers, we ask you to consider just two things: IF your trading account is not UP at least 25% for 2022 so far, we ask you to: