==================

“What happens today has happened before and will happen again.” Livermore

“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs…yours is the WORLD…”Rudyard Kipling

“Rather than love, money, fame, give me truth.” Henry David Thoreau

================

Tracking Account Valuation January 4, 2022 – $1,212,085

Tracking Account Valuation January 2, 2025- $1,844,396  

Tracking Account Valuation November 4, 2025- $2,308,188

Since 2021 +94%/ YTD to 11-4 +30.2%

Primary-Trend: ~ Downtrend

===================

Positions: 13% VXX, 87% Cash

Hard stop: VXX 31.8

================

4:00 PM: Stoch: FALLING-BRSH Itrdy

Daily        LOLR      STS

5/2-DT    7/0-UT    4/3-DT

Breadth: 753/733

ADR: 1.4/SPY: +3.27

NYMO: +10 Rising Intraday

NAMO: +18 Rising Intraday

The Summation Index is Rising

*NYSE Advance-Decline Ratio

===================

While the Hindenburg Omen has drawn attention in recent sessions, highlighting the critical importance of new yearly lows, the equally telling Stock Market Titanic Syndrome underscores the same growing divergence beneath the surface.

The Stock Market Titanic Syndrome

Origin:
The “Titanic Syndrome,” coined by market analyst Bill Ohama in the 1960s, serves as an early warning system of potential market instability.

Mechanics:
The indicator compares the number of stocks hitting new 52-week highs versus those making new 52-week lows. A warning signal is triggered when the S&P 500 is within seven trading days of a new high (either before or after) while more stocks record new lows than new highs—a sign that broad participation is eroding even as the index appears strong.

Interpretation:
This divergence between headline strength and underlying weakness suggests the market is “taking on water,” much like its nautical namesake, even while it still seems to be sailing smoothly. We will revisit the new highs and lows data later this week to evaluate whether this warning has strengthened further.

Track Record:
Historically, the Titanic Syndrome has preceded several major market corrections, though, like many breadth-based indicators, it can occasionally issue false positives. For this reason, analysts often pair it with complementary measures such as the Hindenburg Omen to confirm elevated downside risk.

Context:
To put these warning signals in perspective, the following tables show the number of new 52-week highs and lows recorded over the past three sessions, illustrating how the market’s internal weakness has continued to expand even as index levels remain near their peaks.

Thursday, October 30:

Friday, October 31:

Monday, November 2:

Remarkably, the pattern over these three sessions has met the full criteria for three successive Hindenburg Omens and three successive Titanic Syndrome warnings—a rare and powerful alignment that reinforces the growing downside risk now embedded within the market’s structure. Similar clusters of simultaneous Hindenburg and Titanic warnings have preceded every major market peak of the past half-century—a reminder that even late-stage rallies can conceal the first cracks of a new decline.

We will review the overnight futures at 9:15 on Tuesday Morning.

Trial Offer: $7 for 7 days.

Cancel anytime and pay nothing more, but still get the 7 days.