Tracking Account Valuation January 4, 2022 – $1,206,085 (First day of 2022-2024 Primary Bear Market)
Tracking Account Valuation January 16, 2024- $2,923,486
Intermediate-Term: ~ Downtrend
LOLR Trend: ~ Downtrend
Open Positions: 20% SPXU@8.26, 30% TZA@21.4, 20% SQQQ @11.97 30% Cash
Hard Stops: SPXU 7.77, TZA 18.39, 10.93. We will raise these stops at the end of the week
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4:00:
Daily LOLR STS
Down Down Up
0/7 5/2 4/3
Breadth: 423/164
NYMO:+12 Rising Intraday
NAMO -2 Rising Intraday
NYSI is Rising
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We believe the message is so evident this week that we dare not change one jot or tittle: we’ll lay it out as presented by the markets and based on some of the best analyses of the past 100+ years.
Part 1
First and foremost, the recently embraced idea that markets have adopted a new Bull Market or have not abandoned the old one from 2009 forward is, to our eyes, just not the truth. Full stop:
The new Bull market theory does not fit. Don’t take our interpretation, though – let’s look at some of the best-known over the past century and a half.
I. The Dow Theory, a framework for analyzing and interpreting market movements developed by Charles Dow in the late 19th century, provides specific criteria for confirming a bull market. According to this theory, there are three essential conditions necessary to confirm a bull market:
Both the Industrial and Railroad (Transport) Averages Must Confirm Each Other: Dow Theory emphasizes the importance of confirmation. It states that for a bull market to be in place, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) must confirm each other. In other words, if one average records a new high or an upward trend, the additional average must also do the same to confirm the trend. This is based on the idea that good production, indicated by industrial average performance, should be accompanied by good transportation (movement of goods), as noted in the transportation average.
II. The NYSE Advance-Decline Line is a widely used indicator in stock market analysis, particularly for assessing market movements’ breadth or overall health. In the context of the beginning of a new bull market, the following idea is generally accepted regarding the NYSE Advance-Decline Line:
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