The “Pivot” May Begin Immediately Ahead
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Below we have lined up the daily chart of VIX for the first eleven months of the 2007-2009 Primary Bear Market on the top frame, with the first eleven months of the 2022-2024 Primary Bear market immediately below.
As can be seen, the peaks and troughs for VIX lined up at the same points over those eleven months- nearly perfectly.
The third chart continues the 2007-2009 Primary Bear Market into the twelfth month,
*If* {there are no guarantees, of course} this nearly perfect analog were to continue right from here, we would see a powerful upward explosion in VIX starting this following week and taking $VIX some 500%+ into January 2023.
That’s somewhere in the range of 80-120 for the $VIX terminal price.
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Does this look familiar as we head into the tenth month of this Primary Bear Market?
It should, and it does.
When markets all move together into decline, things break. In September 2008, it was Lehman. In November 2022, it was FTX. SKEW is suggesting that this may be a much “bigger deal” than most people imagine.
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